πΎ Agriculture
Agricultural exposure is represented by crop type. Vulnerability includes water demand, soil imperviousness and groundwater potential.
CLIMATE HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
Drought
Population and Agriculture Risk
The adapted ClimEmpower drought methodology separates drought risk for Population and Agriculture so that exposure and vulnerability are matched to the asset being assessed.
The hazard component uses the Standardized Precipitation Index over 12 months (SPI-12) and the Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI). Risk is calculated as Hazard Γ Exposure Γ Vulnerability after the component variables have been processed on a common scale.
2 risk profilesPopulation and Agriculture
R = H Γ E Γ VClimEmpower risk calculation
METHOD OVERVIEW
Population and Agriculture Risk
The assessment combines a mapped climate hazard with the people, assets or ecosystems exposed to it and their vulnerability. Sector-specific indicators then produce the final risk result.
HHazardIntensity & extent
Γ
EExposurePeople & assets
Γ
VVulnerabilitySensitivity & capacity
=
RRiskPotential impact
Agriculture
Population
Layer structure, input variables and scoring logic for the drought risk maps.
π₯ Population
Population exposure includes population density and relevant social/economic assets; vulnerability includes water demand, soil imperviousness and groundwater potential.
RISK INDEX
1β1,000
Drought Risk Index
Composite result of Hazard Γ Exposure Γ Vulnerability, expressed on a common 1β1,000 scale.
Very low risk class.
Low risk class.
Moderate risk class.
High risk class.
Very high risk class.
RISK FORMULA
Drought Γ Agriculture
R = H Γ E Γ VHHazard
SPI-12
Meteorological drought indicator based on precipitation deficits over a 12-month accumulation period.
JRC Global Drought ObservatoryNDMI
Natural drought component representing vegetation water content and soil-moisture conditions.
Sentinel-2 L2A or Landsat 8/9EExposure
Crop Types
Differentiates agricultural exposure according to crop type and associated water demand.
CORINE Land Cover 2018VVulnerability
Water Demand
Proxy for sensitivity of sectors dependent on high water volumes.
CORINE Land Cover 2018Soil Imperviousness
Represents ecosystem sensitivity and capacity for water infiltration.
Copernicus HRL Imperviousness 2018Groundwater Potential
Represents groundwater availability/potential relevant during drought.
Hydrogeological data specified in AIT methodologyRISK FORMULA
Drought Γ Population
R = H Γ E Γ VHHazard
SPI-12
Meteorological drought indicator based on precipitation deficits over a 12-month accumulation period.
JRC Global Drought ObservatoryNDMI
Natural drought component representing vegetation water content and soil-moisture conditions.
Sentinel-2 L2A or Landsat 8/9EExposure
Population Density
Presence of people in drought-prone areas.
ESTAT Census Grid 2021Social Facilities / Basic Services
Critical assets such as healthcare and schools that are sensitive to water-supply disruption.
EU Basic Services / EurostatTourist Accommodation
Economic exposure in regions where tourism is a major water consumer.
OpenStreetMapVVulnerability
Water Demand
Proxy for sensitivity to high water demand.
CORINE Land Cover 2018Soil Imperviousness
Represents reduced infiltration capacity.
Copernicus HRL Imperviousness 2018Groundwater Potential
Represents groundwater potential during prolonged rainfall deficits.
Hydrogeological data specified in AIT methodologyHHazard Variables2 variables+
SPI-12
Precipitation-deficit indicator over a 12-month accumulation period.
DATA SOURCEJRC Global Drought Observatory
RESOLUTION200 m in adapted methodology
NDMI
Vegetation water-content / moisture indicator.
DATA SOURCESentinel-2 L2A or Landsat 8/9
RESOLUTION10 m for Sentinel-2
EExposure Variables4 variables+
Population Density
Population exposure driver.
DATA SOURCEESTAT Census Grid 2021
RESOLUTION1 km
Social Facilities / Basic Services
Facilities sensitive to water-supply disruption.
DATA SOURCEEurostat
RESOLUTIONSubnational / NUTS-3
Tourist Accommodation
Tourism-related economic exposure where relevant.
DATA SOURCEOpenStreetMap
RESOLUTIONRegional / Local
Crop Types
Core exposure variable for Agriculture Drought Risk.
DATA SOURCECORINE Land Cover 2018
RESOLUTION100 m
VVulnerability Variables3 variables+
Water Demand
Sectoral sensitivity linked to water requirements.
DATA SOURCECORINE Land Cover 2018
RESOLUTION100 m
Soil Imperviousness
Sensitivity/capacity for infiltration.
DATA SOURCECopernicus HRL Imperviousness 2018
RESOLUTION10 m
Groundwater Potential
Groundwater potential relevant to drought sensitivity.
DATA SOURCEHydrogeological data in AIT methodology
RESOLUTIONAs specified by source dataset
Climate-Resilient Crop Varieties
Society & Educationβ Promote crop diversification with drought-resistant, flood-tolerant and heat-resilient varieties.
Regions: OBZClimate-Aligned Crop Scheduling
Society & Educationβ Adjust planting and harvesting schedules using seasonal climate forecasts to reduce crop losses.
Regions: OBZDomestic Water-Saving Campaigns
Society & Educationβ Raise household awareness of efficient appliances and behavioural measures that reduce domestic water use.
Regions: Sicily, AndalusPublic Awareness, Information, Education and Communication
Society & Educationβ Inform citizens and visitors about major hazards and resilience measures through public communication and training.
Regions: SicilyAssess Energy Impact of Water Supply
Infrastructureβ Assess energy use associated with water supply options such as desalination and regenerated-water plants.
Regions: OBZ, Troodos, SicilyAdapt Intake Infrastructure to Low Flows
Infrastructureβ Increase the flexibility of water-abstraction structures so they can operate under lower water levels.
Regions: OBZ, TroodosMunicipal Water Saving
Infrastructureβ Reduce water use in parks, gardens, fountains, street cleaning and municipal buildings and support local rainwater capture.
Regions: OBZ, TroodosIntegrated Rainwater and Greywater Harvesting
Infrastructureβ Collect, store and reuse rainwater and greywater for irrigation, cooling and other non-drinking uses.
Regions: OBZ, Sicily, AndalusEfficient Irrigation Systems
Infrastructureβ Use drip or micro-sprinkler irrigation to optimise water use and reduce evaporation losses.
Regions: OBZPrecision Water Management
Infrastructureβ Use soil-moisture sensors and satellite monitoring to manage water and nutrient application more efficiently.
Regions: OBZUrban Rainwater Harvesting
Infrastructureβ Capture rainwater from buildings, public spaces and roads for irrigation, cooling or other non-potable uses.
Regions: OBZBypass / Diversion Channels for Seasonal Flow Management
Infrastructureβ Use sub-basin-scale bypass or diversion channels to diversify seasonal water supply.
Regions: TroodosHydropower Turbine Efficiency & Reservoir Management
Infrastructureβ Improve turbine efficiency and reservoir management to reduce evaporation and protect water storage.
Regions: SicilyOptimise Desalination Plants
Infrastructureβ Improve desalination efficiency to provide an alternative drought water source with lower costs and environmental impacts.
Regions: Sicily, AndalusReduce Leakage in Water Distribution Networks
Infrastructureβ Monitor, maintain and modernise water-distribution networks to reduce water losses.
Regions: Sicily, AndalusInterbasin Connections
Infrastructureβ Create interbasin connections to provide redundancy in regional water supply.
Regions: AndalusSmart Local Irrigation Systems
Infrastructureβ Adapt municipal tree irrigation to evapotranspiration and cooling needs to reduce water consumption.
Regions: AndalusWater Storage & Recharge Systems
Environment & Natureβ Use reservoirs, retention ponds, underground storage and recharge pools to increase water availability and aquifer recharge.
Regions: OBZ, SicilyCanopies
Environment & Natureβ Install shaded canopy structures to reduce evaporation and heat stress in public spaces.
Regions: SicilyRestore Natural Infiltration to Groundwater
Environment & Natureβ Restore natural or artificial groundwater recharge to improve runoff storage and groundwater levels.
Regions: AndalusDrought-Tolerant Landscaping
Governance & Planningβ Use xerophytic plants in landscaping to reduce irrigation demand during prolonged dry periods.
Regions: OBZAdapt Urban Planning Regulations
Governance & Planningβ Integrate water efficiency and drought resilience into urban-planning regulations.
Regions: Sicily, AndalusFoster Municipal Water Saving
Governance & Planningβ Promote water efficiency across municipal services and public spaces.
Regions: Sicily, AndalusIncrease Water Cost for Specific Uses
Governance & Planningβ Use pricing and incentives to reduce overconsumption and encourage more sustainable water use.
Regions: AndalusMonitor Drinking Water and Groundwater Quality
Governance & Planningβ Monitor water quality during drought to protect safe supply and detect salinity or pollutant problems.
Regions: Sicily, AndalusUpdate Drought Protocol with Climate Projections
Governance & Planningβ Incorporate current climate projections into future drought protocols to support long-term planning.
Regions: AndalusWater-Network Flow & Quality Modelling Tools
Governance & Planningβ Model interruptions and water-quality shifts to improve drought planning and preparedness.
Regions: TroodosHow measures reduce risk
Adaptation measures can reduce risk by changing hazard, exposure and/or vulnerability, depending on the measure and local context. The effect should be linked to the relevant risk component rather than assumed in advance.