Hazard
A climate-related event or process with the potential to cause harm.
★★★★★ Horizon Europe · Grant No. 101112728 · climempower.eu
ClimEmpower:
Risk Map
Methodology
Navigating Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability for Localized Resilience.
ClimEmpower climate risk methodology for Drought, Heatwaves, Wildfires and Floods, with documented variables, asset-specific approaches and final computation.
CLIMEMPOWER RISK EQUATION
H
×
E
×
V
=
R
H = Hazard
E = Exposure
V = Vulnerability
R = Calculated risk result
- Hazards
- Drought · Heatwaves · Wildfires · Floods
- Drought / Heatwave / Wildfire model
- Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability
- Classification
- Five qualitative classes normalized to each region’s maximum risk
- Risk classes
- Very Low · Low · Moderate · High · Very High — region-normalized
- Method rule
- Keep asset-specific exposure profiles separate
- Local data
- Use higher-resolution local data where available and document limitations
MODULE 02 // THE CORE EQUATION
Drought, Heatwave & Wildfire Risk = Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability
The ClimEmpower risk assessment workflow treats Hazard (H), Exposure (E) and Vulnerability (V) as distinct components. After the input variables are processed on a common scale, the final risk score is calculated as R = H × E × V.
HHazard
×
EExposure
×
VVulnerability
=
RCalculated Risk
Exposure
The presence of people, assets or ecosystems in areas affected by the hazard.
Vulnerability
The susceptibility of exposed elements to suffer harm or loss.
Risk Result
The H, E and V component values are multiplied. The resulting map is then normalized against the maximum calculated risk within each region.
MODULE 03 // COMPONENT CONSTRUCTION
Build Each Component, Then Multiply
Where several variables make up one component, the ClimEmpower Risk Methodology aggregates them using equal weighting. For three variables, each contributes 0.33; for two variables, each contributes 0.5.
1. Standardise inputs
Convert variables to a comparable scoring scale where required and document whether higher or lower raw values represent higher risk.
2. Construct H, E and V
Aggregate the variables belonging to the same component using equal weighting, while keeping the hazard- and asset-specific risk profiles shown on each hazard page.
3. Calculate risk
R = H × E × V
The resulting risk values are used for region-specific normalization and qualitative classification.
For the final operational risk maps, the five qualitative class thresholds are calculated dynamically for each region from that region’s maximum calculated risk value. Fixed universal class intervals are not specified in the final methodology.
MODULE 04 // ASSET-SPECIFIC RISK
Hazards and Risk Profiles Covered
The ClimEmpower Risk Maps cover hazard- and asset-specific risk profiles. Drought, Heatwaves and Wildfires use the documented H × E × V scoring methodology; Floods use the supported flood-specific, asset- and scenario-specific workflow.
Hazard ↓ / Asset →
Agriculture
Population & Health
Infrastructure
Ecosystems / Biodiversity
Tourism
Flood-specific output
🌾 Drought
✓
✓
—
—
—
—
🌡 Heatwaves
—
✓
—
—
—
—
🔥 Wildfires
✓
✓
✓
✓
✓
—
💧 Fluvial Flood
—
—
✓
—
—
Direct economic damage
🌧️ Pluvial Flood
—
—
—
—
—
People & vehicle hazard
🌾
CLIMATE HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
Drought
Population and AgricultureThe final ClimEmpower Risk Methodology uses SPI-6 as the drought hazard variable. Population and Agriculture are assessed as separate risk profiles; exposure and vulnerability variables are combined within each component using equal weighting.
SPI-6Final drought hazard indicator
Risk profilesPopulation and Agriculture
🌡
CLIMATE HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
Heatwaves
People & HealthThe final ClimEmpower Risk Methodology represents heat hazard with tropical nights: daily minimum near-surface air temperature above 20°C. Exposure maps the presence of population and social facilities/basic services; vulnerability combines age distribution, proximity to green and blue cooling areas, population density and social-facility importance.
Tropical nights >20°CSeven annual exposure classes from 0–10 to >150 nights
🔥
CLIMATE HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
Wildfires
Asset-Specific RiskWildfire hazard combines the Seasonal Fire Weather Index and Burnable Vegetation. Burnable Vegetation is explicitly treated as a hazard variable. Risk is differentiated for Population, Ecosystems/Biodiversity, Infrastructure, Tourism and Agriculture.
FWI + Burnable VegetationEqually weighted hazard variables
Risk profilesPopulation, Ecosystems/Biodiversity, Infrastructure, Tourism and Agriculture
💧
CLIMATE HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
Floods
Fluvial Flood & Direct Economic DamageThe Fluvial Flood chapter follows the tested CLIMAAX river-flood risk workflow adapted for ClimEmpower: present-condition JRC/CEMS flood-depth maps are combined with LUISA 2018 land use, JRC depth-damage curves and GDP-scaled maximum damage values using DamageScanner. Outputs are direct economic damage GeoTIFFs in EUR per raster cell for RP10, RP100 and RP500 (RP250 only if RP500 is unavailable).
RP10 · RP100 · RP500Present-condition river-flood depth
DamageScannerDirect damage in EUR per raster cell
SYNTHESIS // THE RESILIENCE LOOP
Mathematically Inverting Risk
Because risk is an equation, increasing adaptive capacity lowers vulnerability and generates a new, lower risk score after intervention.
1Map the ThreatIdentify hazard intensity & extent
2Isolate VulnerabilityPinpoint sensitivity & weak systems
3Deploy InterventionsImplement targeted actions
4Increase Adaptive CapacityStrengthen systems & reduce vulnerability
5Recalculate RiskCompute the new, lower risk score
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Open References →
References
Open the standalone References page for the academic and institutional sources underlying the ClimEmpower risk map methodology, hazard science and adaptation evidence base.