Population and Agriculture Risk
The final ClimEmpower Risk Methodology for drought differentiates risk for Population and Agriculture. It uses the IPCC-based structure Risk = Hazard Γ Exposure Γ Vulnerability and aggregates variables within each component using equal weighting.
Drought hazard is represented by the Standardized Precipitation Index over six months (SPI-6). The historical period is the reference condition, while future periods are classified relative to that historical baseline.
The assessment combines a mapped climate hazard with the people, assets or ecosystems exposed to it and their vulnerability. Sector-specific indicators then produce the final risk result.
Exposure maps the presence of population, social facilities/basic services and tourism accommodation. Vulnerability combines soil imperviousness, groundwater potential, population density, social-facility importance and tourism-accommodation type where applicable.
Exposure maps the presence of crops. Vulnerability combines soil imperviousness, groundwater potential and crop-type sensitivity based on water requirements.
Composite result of Hazard Γ Exposure Γ Vulnerability. After the component variables are equally weighted, the final map is normalized against the maximum calculated risk within each region and reclassified into five region-specific qualitative classes.
R = H Γ E Γ VMeteorological drought hazard based on precipitation deficits over a 6-month accumulation period.
Copernicus Climate Data StoreBinary presence of people in drought-prone areas.
ESTAT Census Grid 2021 / Eurostat GISCOBinary presence of critical assets such as healthcare and schools that are sensitive to water-supply disruption.
EU Basic Services data / EurostatBinary presence of tourism accommodation in regions where tourism is a critical sector and water consumer.
OpenStreetMapEcosystem sensitivity and capacity to manage water infiltration during drought and recovery cycles.
Copernicus HRL Imperviousness Density 2018Capacity of regional aquifers to store and provide water during prolonged rainfall deficits.
International Hydrogeological Map of Europe (IHME1500)Population density is reclassified case by case using the regional maximum as the reference.
ESTAT Census Grid 2021 / Eurostat GISCOFacility types are scored by their societal importance, from private schools/social centres to hospitals.
EU Basic Services data / EurostatAccommodation types are scored by economic significance in tourism-dependent regions.
OpenStreetMapR = H Γ E Γ VMeteorological drought hazard based on precipitation deficits over a 6-month accumulation period.
Copernicus Climate Data StoreBinary presence of crops in the region, derived from CORINE Land Cover 2018.
CORINE Land Cover 2018Ecosystem sensitivity and capacity to manage water infiltration during drought and recovery cycles.
Copernicus HRL Imperviousness Density 2018Capacity of regional aquifers to store and provide water during prolonged rainfall deficits.
International Hydrogeological Map of Europe (IHME1500)Crop classes are scored according to water requirements; non-agricultural classes are assigned zero.
CORINE Land Cover 2018Standardized Precipitation Index over six months; negative projected SPI values indicate drier conditions relative to the historical reference.
Binary presence of population in drought-prone areas.
Binary presence of critical social assets sensitive to water-supply disruption.
Binary presence of tourism accommodation where regionally relevant.
Binary presence of crops from CORINE Land Cover 2018.
Sensitivity and infiltration capacity during drought/recovery cycles.
Aquifer capacity to store and provide water during prolonged rainfall deficits.
Reclassified case by case against the maximum population value within each region.
Facility types scored by societal importance.
Accommodation types scored by economic significance where tourism is relevant.
Agricultural sensitivity based on crop water requirements and reclassified CORINE classes.
β Promote crop diversification with drought-resistant, flood-tolerant and heat-resilient varieties.
Regions: OBZβ Adjust planting and harvesting schedules using seasonal climate forecasts to reduce crop losses.
Regions: OBZβ Raise household awareness of efficient appliances and behavioural measures that reduce domestic water use.
Regions: Sicily, Andalusβ Inform citizens and visitors about major hazards and resilience measures through public communication and training.
Regions: Sicilyβ Assess energy use associated with water supply options such as desalination and regenerated-water plants.
Regions: OBZ, Troodos, Sicilyβ Increase the flexibility of water-abstraction structures so they can operate under lower water levels.
Regions: OBZ, Troodosβ Reduce water use in parks, gardens, fountains, street cleaning and municipal buildings and support local rainwater capture.
Regions: OBZ, Troodosβ Collect, store and reuse rainwater and greywater for irrigation, cooling and other non-drinking uses.
Regions: OBZ, Sicily, Andalusβ Use drip or micro-sprinkler irrigation to optimise water use and reduce evaporation losses.
Regions: OBZβ Use soil-moisture sensors and satellite monitoring to manage water and nutrient application more efficiently.
Regions: OBZβ Capture rainwater from buildings, public spaces and roads for irrigation, cooling or other non-potable uses.
Regions: OBZβ Use sub-basin-scale bypass or diversion channels to diversify seasonal water supply.
Regions: Troodosβ Improve turbine efficiency and reservoir management to reduce evaporation and protect water storage.
Regions: Sicilyβ Improve desalination efficiency to provide an alternative drought water source with lower costs and environmental impacts.
Regions: Sicily, Andalusβ Monitor, maintain and modernise water-distribution networks to reduce water losses.
Regions: Sicily, Andalusβ Create interbasin connections to provide redundancy in regional water supply.
Regions: Andalusβ Adapt municipal tree irrigation to evapotranspiration and cooling needs to reduce water consumption.
Regions: Andalusβ Use reservoirs, retention ponds, underground storage and recharge pools to increase water availability and aquifer recharge.
Regions: OBZ, Sicilyβ Install shaded canopy structures to reduce evaporation and heat stress in public spaces.
Regions: Sicilyβ Restore natural or artificial groundwater recharge to improve runoff storage and groundwater levels.
Regions: Andalusβ Use xerophytic plants in landscaping to reduce irrigation demand during prolonged dry periods.
Regions: OBZβ Integrate water efficiency and drought resilience into urban-planning regulations.
Regions: Sicily, Andalusβ Promote water efficiency across municipal services and public spaces.
Regions: Sicily, Andalusβ Use pricing and incentives to reduce overconsumption and encourage more sustainable water use.
Regions: Andalusβ Monitor water quality during drought to protect safe supply and detect salinity or pollutant problems.
Regions: Sicily, Andalusβ Incorporate current climate projections into future drought protocols to support long-term planning.
Regions: Andalusβ Model interruptions and water-quality shifts to improve drought planning and preparedness.
Regions: TroodosAdaptation measures can reduce risk by changing hazard, exposure and/or vulnerability, depending on the measure and local context. The effect should be linked to the relevant risk component rather than assumed in advance.