👥 Population & Health
Urban Heat Island effect (Landsat LST vs. NUTS regional mean). Spatial distance to cooling zones — forests, parks, water bodies — is the key Vulnerability modifier alongside age demographics.
CLIMATE HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
Heatwaves
The Urban Heat Island: Spatial Proximity & Health
A heatwave is a prolonged period of abnormally high temperatures that significantly exceeds the historical norms for a given region. The World Meteorological Organisation defines it as at least 5 consecutive days where daily maximum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile of the local historical baseline (1961–1990).
Urban areas intensify heatwaves through the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect: impervious surfaces, reduced vegetation, and waste heat from buildings and transport raise urban temperatures well above rural surroundings. The ClimEmpower model uses Landsat Land Surface Temperature (LST) to capture the spatial heterogeneity of thermal exposure at 100-metre resolution — far more precise than station-based air temperature measurements.
More than 70,000Excess deaths in 2003 European heatwave
47.4°CSpain's all-time record temperature, Montoro (Córdoba), 14 Aug 2021
61,672Estimated excess heat deaths across Europe, summer 2022
METHOD OVERVIEW
The Urban Heat Island: Spatial Proximity & Health
The assessment combines a mapped climate hazard with the people, assets or ecosystems exposed to it and their vulnerability. Sector-specific indicators then produce the final risk result.
HHazardIntensity & extent
×
EExposurePeople & assets
×
VVulnerabilitySensitivity & capacity
=
RRiskPotential impact
Population & Health
Layer structure, input variables and scoring logic for the heatwaves risk maps.
RISK INDEX
1–1,000
Heatwaves Risk Index
Composite result of Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability, expressed on a common 1–1,000 scale.
Limited risk. Maintain existing good practices.
Low impact. Maintain adaptive capacity.
Noticeable risk. Precautionary planning is recommended.
Significant risk. Targeted intervention is needed.
Severe risk. Immediate action is required.
RISK FORMULA
Heatwaves × Population & Health
R_heat = H × E × VHH = LST_NUTS_deviation → class 1–10
LSTw = 1.00
Land Surface Temperature — deviation from NUTS regional mean
Landsat 8–9 TIRS Band 10 · 100m · Aug 2023EE = (PopDens + SocFacil) / 2
PopDensw = 0.50
Population density
ESTAT Census Grid 2021 · 1kmSocFacilw = 0.50
Social facilities (hospitals, schools, care homes, day-care)
EU Basic Services (Eurostat) · NUTS-3VV = (Age_vuln + DistGreen + DistWater) / 3
Age_vulnw = 0.33
Age vulnerability: population <15 and >65 yrs (normalised)
Regional/National Census · MunicipalDistGreenw = 0.33
Distance to green areas — inverted buffer score (park size → radius)
OpenStreetMap landuse · 25m rasterisedDistWaterw = 0.34
Distance to water bodies (rivers, lakes, coast)
OpenStreetMap / EU Hydrological datasets · VectorHHazard Variables1 variable+
Land Surface Temperature (LST)
August 2023 peak heat. Reclassified by NUTS deviation <0°C → >8°C (score 1–10).
DATA SOURCELandsat 8–9 TIRS Band 10 (USGS/RSlab)
RESOLUTION100 m
EExposure Variables2 variables+
Population Density
Concentration of people in high-temperature zones.
DATA SOURCEESTAT Census Grid 2021
RESOLUTION1 km
Social Facilities
Hospitals, schools, care homes hosting vulnerable groups.
DATA SOURCEEU Basic Services (Eurostat)
RESOLUTIONNUTS-3
VVulnerability Variables3 variables+
Age Distribution (<5 and >65)
High-risk demographic groups. Normalised by regional population.
DATA SOURCERegional Census
RESOLUTIONMunicipal
Distance to Green Areas
Forest, park, meadow, scrub. Buffer score: area >10,000m² within 900m = score 1; no green nearby = score 10.
DATA SOURCEOpenStreetMap landuse
RESOLUTION25 m
Distance to Water Bodies
Proximity to rivers, lakes, coast as cooling capacity proxy.
DATA SOURCEOpenStreetMap
RESOLUTIONVector
Andalusia regularly records the highest surface temperatures in continental Europe. Dense historic urban fabrics in Seville, Córdoba, and Jaén — combined with a significant elderly population and a shortage of accessible green space — create intense Urban Heat Island conditions. For this region, higher-resolution local data on population age structure, healthcare access, and green infrastructure is available than for the other ClimEmpower partner regions. To make the best use of this data, a more elaborate risk calculation method has been established for Andalusia.
The Andalusian method also places greater emphasis on Vulnerability over Hazard and Exposure, since this is the factor the region can influence most efficiently. This is reflected in the following risk calculation formula.
ANDALUSIAN WEIGHTING MODEL
R = H^0.2 × E^0.3 × V^0.5
H weight 0.2 · E weight 0.3 · V weight 0.5 · sum = 1.0Hw = 0.2Ew = 0.3Vw = 0.5
Vulnerability receives the highest weight (0.5) because proximity to green space, age demographics, and healthcare access are directly addressable through urban greening programmes, planning policy, and social services investment. Urban temperature fields (Hazard, 0.2) are determined by climate and built form; population distribution (Exposure, 0.3) changes slowly.
ANDALUSIAN CLASSIFICATION TABLES — VARIABLE THRESHOLDS
HHazard layers (1)+
LST NUTS-deviation
Landsat 8–9 TIRS Band 10 · 100m · Aug 2023NUTS-3 means used: Sevilla (38.2°C median LST in Aug 2023), Granada (34.1°C), Almería (42.8°C). Deviation scoring anchored to regional metrics.
RANGE / CONDITIONSCORECLASS
< 0°C above NUTS mean1Below regional avg0–2°C3Slight warming2–4°C5Moderate UHI4–6°C7Strong UHI> 8°C above mean10Extreme heat islandEExposure layers (2)+
Population Density
ESTAT Census Grid 2021 · 1kmSeville city centre scores 10 (>15,000 inh/km²). Costa del Sol scores 8–9 in tourist peak season.
RANGE / CONDITIONSCORECLASS
< 50 inh/km²2Sparse50–2004Low200–1,0006Moderate1,000–5,0008Dense> 5,000 inh/km²10Very denseSocial Facilities
Junta Social Services Registry + Eurostat · NUTS-3Hospital bed density and day-care centres are used to represent access to social and healthcare facilities.
RANGE / CONDITIONSCORECLASS
High healthcare access (> 5 beds/1,000)2Well-served3–5 beds/1,0004Moderate1.5–3 beds/1,0006Limited< 1.5 beds/1,0008Under-servedNo social facility within 2km10IsolatedVVulnerability layers (3)+
Age Distribution (>65 & <5)
INE Municipal Register 2023 · MunicipalAndalusia's interior municipalities may have >25% population over 65. Scored by share of vulnerable age cohort relative to Andalusian mean.
RANGE / CONDITIONSCORECLASS
< 10% vulnerable cohort1Young population10–15%3Average15–20%5Moderate aging20–25%7Aging> 25% over 65 / under 510Highly vulnerableDistance to Green Areas
OSM + REDIAM Habitats · 25m rasterisedSeville has 2.9m² green space/capita vs. WHO's 9m² recommendation. Buffer scoring uses park area-to-radius formula.
RANGE / CONDITIONSCORECLASS
≥ 10,000m² park within 200m1Well-greenedwithin 500m3Accessiblewithin 900m5Moderate access1,000–2,000m7Poor accessNo green space >10,000m² within 2km10Heat island / no coolingDistance to Water Bodies
REDIAM Hidrología + OSM · VectorGuadalquivir River and Embalse de Iznájar provide cooling corridors. Arid interior areas without water bodies score highest.
RANGE / CONDITIONSCORECLASS
< 200m from river/lake/coast1Strong cooling200–500m3Moderate cooling500–1,000m5Some cooling1–2 km7Minimal> 2km from water body10No cooling accessRegional station network providing observed Tmax calibration for NUTS-level LST anomaly thresholds
Official municipal population by 5-year age group for Andalusian NUTS-3/LAU2 units
Location and capacity of Residencias de Mayores, day-care, and healthcare centres across Andalusia
Junta's regional environmental data network — natural and semi-natural green area mapping
Regional hydrological map — permanent and intermittent water bodies at 1:50,000 scale
Green Roofs, Cool Roofs & Urban Vegetation
Infrastructure➜ Reduces urban heat island by 1–2°C; lowers indoor cooling energy 5–10%
Regions: OBZ, SicilyClimate-Resilient Building Design & Shading
Infrastructure➜ Passive shading reduces indoor heat stress; lowers building energy consumption
Regions: OBZ, Sicily, Troodos, AndalusiaRetrofit Housing: Insulation & Passive Shading
Infrastructure➜ Indoor temperature reduction of 5–10°C in retrofitted buildings
Regions: AndalusiaSmart Energy Management Systems
Infrastructure➜ Grid resilience during peak cooling demand; prevents cascading failures
Regions: OBZEnergy System Resilience (backup cooling)
Infrastructure➜ Ensures continuity for hospitals and vulnerable-population facilities
Regions: SicilyUrban Green Parks & Street Tree Planting
Environment & Nature➜ Urban temperatures decrease by 1–3°C; cooling effect mainly nocturnal
Regions: OBZ, Sicily, TroodosLawns, Green Areas & Urban Meadows
Environment & Nature➜ Decreased heat storage by day; evaporative cooling overnight
Regions: AndalusiaWater Features & Misting Systems
Environment & Nature➜ Reduces local ambient temperature by 1–2°C in public spaces
Regions: SicilyAfforestation & Naturally Vegetated Land
Environment & Nature➜ Regional cooling through increased evapotranspiration and shading
Regions: OBZ, TroodosEarly Warning Systems for Heatwaves
Governance & Planning➜ Triggers timely public alerts, cooling centre activation, and clinical readiness
Regions: SicilyPriority Mapping of Urban Vegetation Gaps
Governance & Planning➜ Identifies hotspot districts for targeted green infrastructure investment
Regions: OBZ, TroodosClimate Shelter Implementation Plans
Governance & Planning➜ Ensures access to cooling for populations without home A/C
Regions: TroodosPublic Cooling Centres
Society & Education➜ Direct protection for elderly and low-income households during extreme events
Regions: SicilyStrengthen Vulnerable-Population Health Services
Society & Education➜ Reduces heat-related morbidity and mortality in >65 and <5 age groups
Regions: AndalusiaCommunity Gardens & Urban Food Security
Society & Education➜ Green infrastructure reduces day- and night-time temperatures at micro-scale
Regions: OBZHow measures reduce risk
Each measure targets one or more risk components. Governance and planning measures typically reduce Exposure (E) by keeping assets out of hazard zones. Nature-based and infrastructure measures primarily reduce Vulnerability (V). Early warning and awareness measures improve adaptive capacity — the fastest path to a lower risk score.