🌾 Agriculture
Crop failure risk driven by precipitation deficit (SPI-12) and soil moisture (NDMI), with exposure weighted by irrigated crop type and vulnerability by water demand, soil imperviousness, and groundwater potential.
CLIMATE HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
Drought
The Slow-Motion Disaster: Mapping Water Security
Drought is the highest-priority climate hazard for Andalusia — the most water-stressed agricultural region in the EU. ClimEmpower maps the shared drought hazard and then distinguishes agricultural crop-failure risk from population drinking-water insecurity.
The drought hazard combines a precipitation deficit indicator (SPI-12) with vegetation moisture stress (NDMI). Agriculture exposure is determined by crop type, while population exposure combines population density, social facilities and tourist accommodation. Vulnerability is represented by water demand, soil imperviousness and groundwater potential.
2 sector risk mapsAgriculture and Population & Health
1–1,000Composite drought risk-index range
METHOD OVERVIEW
The Slow-Motion Disaster: Mapping Water Security
The assessment combines a mapped climate hazard with the people, assets or ecosystems exposed to it and their vulnerability. Sector-specific indicators then produce the final risk result.
HHazardIntensity & extent
×
EExposurePeople & assets
×
VVulnerabilitySensitivity & capacity
=
RRiskPotential impact
Agriculture
Population & Health
Layer structure, input variables and scoring logic for the drought risk maps.
👥 Population & Health
Drinking-water insecurity from aquifer depletion and urban demand peaks. Exposure via population density and social facilities. Vulnerability where groundwater potential is low and water demand is high.
RISK INDEX
1–1,000
Drought Risk Index
Composite result of Hazard × Exposure × Vulnerability, expressed on a common 1–1,000 scale.
Limited risk. Maintain existing good practices.
Low impact. Maintain adaptive capacity.
Noticeable risk. Precautionary planning is recommended.
Significant risk. Targeted intervention is needed.
Severe risk. Immediate action is required.
RISK FORMULA
Drought × Agriculture
R_agr = H × E_agr × V_agrHH = (SPI₁₂ + NDMI) / 2
SPI₁₂w = 0.50
Standardized Precipitation Index (12-month)
JRC Global Drought Observatory · 200mNDMIw = 0.50
Normalized Difference Moisture Index
Sentinel-2 L2A / Landsat 8–9 · 10mEE = CropType_score
CLC_cropw = 1.00
Crop Types — CLC reclassified by water demand (irrigated=10, forest=1)
CORINE Land Cover 2018 · 100mVV = (W_demand + Imperv + GW_pot) / 3
W_demandw = 0.33
Agricultural water demand (CLC reclassified)
CORINE Land Cover 2018 · 100mImpervw = 0.33
Degree of soil imperviousness
Copernicus HRL Imperviousness · 10mGW_potw = 0.34
Groundwater potential (hydraulic conductivity)
IHME1500 (BGR / UNESCO) · 1:1.5MRISK FORMULA
Drought × Population & Health
R_pop = H × E_pop × V_popHH = (SPI₁₂ + NDMI) / 2
SPI₁₂w = 0.50
Standardized Precipitation Index (12-month)
JRC Global Drought Observatory · 200mNDMIw = 0.50
Normalized Difference Moisture Index
Sentinel-2 L2A / Landsat 8–9 · 10mEE = (PopDens + SocFacil + TourAccom) / 3
PopDensw = 0.33
Population density
ESTAT Census Grid 2021 · 1kmSocFacilw = 0.33
Social facilities (hospitals, schools, care homes)
EU Basic Services (Eurostat) · NUTS-3TourAccomw = 0.34
Tourist accommodation (hotels, golf courses)
OpenStreetMap · GeofabrikVV = (W_demand + Imperv + GW_pot) / 3
W_demandw = 0.33
Urban water demand (CLC reclassified)
CORINE Land Cover 2018 · 100mImpervw = 0.33
Degree of soil imperviousness
Copernicus HRL Imperviousness · 10mGW_potw = 0.34
Groundwater potential (hydraulic conductivity)
IHME1500 (BGR / UNESCO) · 1:1.5MHHazard Variables2 variables+
SPI-12
12-month cumulative precipitation deficit. Monthly, taken 01/04/2025.
DATA SOURCEJRC Global Drought Observatory
RESOLUTION200 m
NDMI
(NIR − SWIR)/(NIR + SWIR). 5-day revisit. Vegetation water content.
DATA SOURCESentinel-2 L2A / Landsat 8–9
RESOLUTION10 m
EExposure Variables4 variables+
Population Density
Primary population pillar exposure driver.
DATA SOURCEESTAT Census Grid 2021
RESOLUTION1 km
Social Facilities
Healthcare and schools — sensitive to water supply disruptions.
DATA SOURCEEU Basic Services (Eurostat)
RESOLUTIONNUTS-3
Tourist Accommodation
Hotels and golf courses as high water consumers.
DATA SOURCEOpenStreetMap
RESOLUTIONLocal
Crop Types (CLC)
Irrigated land=10, forests=1. Agriculture pillar.
DATA SOURCECORINE Land Cover 2018
RESOLUTION100 m
VVulnerability Variables3 variables+
Water Demand (Agri & Urban)
CLC reclassified by sectoral water sensitivity.
DATA SOURCECORINE Land Cover 2018
RESOLUTION100 m
Soil Imperviousness
Ecosystem capacity for water infiltration.
DATA SOURCEHRL Imperviousness 2018
RESOLUTION10 m
Groundwater Potential
Aquifer capacity during prolonged rainfall deficits.
DATA SOURCEIHME1500 (BGR, UNESCO)
RESOLUTION1:1.5M
Drought is the highest-priority climate hazard for Andalusia — the most water-stressed agricultural region in the EU. Locally validated hydrological and agricultural datasets are available that go significantly beyond the pan-European inputs, including the SIGPAC plot-level irrigation register and real-time aquifer monitoring from the Guadalquivir River Authority. To make the best use of this data, a more elaborate risk calculation method has been established for Andalusia.
The Andalusian method also places greater emphasis on Vulnerability over Hazard and Exposure, since this is the factor the region can influence most efficiently. This is reflected in the following risk calculation formula.
ANDALUSIAN WEIGHTING MODEL
R = H^0.2 × E^0.3 × V^0.5
H weight 0.2 · E weight 0.3 · V weight 0.5 · sum = 1.0Hw = 0.2Ew = 0.3Vw = 0.5
Vulnerability receives the highest weight (0.5) because water demand, aquifer condition, and soil imperviousness are directly improvable through regional irrigation efficiency programmes, land-use planning, and groundwater protection policy. Precipitation deficit (Hazard, 0.2) is climate-driven; land use and crop distribution (Exposure, 0.3) change slowly.
ANDALUSIAN CLASSIFICATION TABLES — VARIABLE THRESHOLDS
HHazard layers (2)+
SPI-12
JRC GDO · 200mTaken 01/04/2025 for Andalusia — aligned to end-of-winter soil recharge window, when anomalies are most predictive of summer drought severity.
RANGE / CONDITIONSCORECLASS
> −0.51Near-normal−0.5 to −0.83Mild deficit−0.8 to −1.25Moderate−1.2 to −1.57Severe< −1.510ExtremeNDMI
Sentinel-2 L2A · 10mSummer composite (Jul–Aug 2024). In Andalusia's semi-arid interior, NDMI <−0.25 correlates with 80%+ probability of crop stress (REDIAM validation).
RANGE / CONDITIONSCORECLASS
> 0.21High moisture0.0–0.23Adequate−0.1–0.05Slight stress−0.25–−0.17Stress< −0.2510Severe stressEExposure layers (2)+
Crop Types (SIGPAC/CLC reclassified)
SIGPAC 2023 + CLC 2018 · 100mSIGPAC provides plot-level irrigation type not available in CLC. Olive groves (250,000+ ha Jaén/Córdoba) scored 8; citrus/berries (Huelva) scored 10; rainfed cereals scored 4.
RANGE / CONDITIONSCORECLASS
Rainfed cereals3Low demandRainfed tree crops4Medium-lowIrrigated cereals6MediumIrrigated olive/citrus8HighIrrigated berries/greenhouse10Very high demandPopulation Density
ESTAT Census Grid 2021 · 1kmAndalusia's 8.5M population is 60% urban; Seville/Málaga coastal strip scores 8–10. Rural interior municipalities with aging populations score 2–4 — low density but high individual vulnerability.
RANGE / CONDITIONSCORECLASS
< 50 inh/km²2Sparse50–2004Low density200–1,0006Moderate1,000–5,0008Dense urban> 5,000 inh/km²10Very denseVVulnerability layers (3)+
Groundwater Potential
IHME1500 + REDIAM Aguas Subterráneas · 100mREDIAM local geology corrects IHME1500 for the Guadalquivir basin. Carboniferous basement in Sierra Morena has very low conductivity (score 9–10); Quaternary alluvial deposits along Guadalquivir score 2–3.
RANGE / CONDITIONSCORECLASS
Quaternary alluvial (high yield)2High resilienceMiocene limestone4ModerateTertiary clay/marl6Low yieldTriassic evaporites8Very lowPaleozoic basement (impermeable)10Extremely vulnerableSoil Imperviousness
Copernicus HRL 2018 · 10mMálaga, Almería, and Murcia coastal sprawl have >50% imperviousness in peri-urban zones. This directly caps natural aquifer recharge — scored per SAIH observed recharge rates.
RANGE / CONDITIONSCORECLASS
0–10%1Natural10–30%4Low imperv.30–50%6Moderate50–75%8High> 75%10Sealed surfaceWater Demand (CLC reclassified)
CORINE 2018 · 100mReclassification calibrated to Junta de Andalucía Agencia de Agua demand coefficients (m³/ha/year). Greenhouse horticulture (Almería) uses 800–1,200 m³/ha/year → score 10.
RANGE / CONDITIONSCORECLASS
Forest / shrubland1Minimal demandRainfed agriculture3LowUrban / commercial6MediumIrrigated agriculture8HighGreenhouse / intensive irrigated10Very highSpanish Agricultural Plot Register — plot-level irrigation type and crop class for all of Andalusia
Junta's regional environmental data network: local hydrogeology and aquifer yield calibration
Real-time hydrological observation network (Confederación Hidrográfica del Guadalquivir)
Official water demand coefficients by crop type and irrigation system (m³/ha/year)
Precision Irrigation & Smart Water Systems
Infrastructure➜ Reduces agricultural water consumption by 20–40%
Regions: OBZ, AndalusiaIntegrated Rainwater & Greywater Harvesting
Infrastructure➜ Reduces dependence on potable supply by 10–40%
Regions: OBZ, Sicily, AndalusiaReduction of Distribution Network Leakages
Infrastructure➜ Directly improves available supply; priority for aging networks
Regions: Sicily, AndalusiaDesalination Plant Optimisation
Infrastructure➜ Supplements supply in coastal areas under prolonged deficit
Regions: Sicily, AndalusiaBypass / Diversion Channels (Sub-basin scale)
Infrastructure➜ Redistributes available flow; reduces local shortage peaks
Regions: TroodosInterbasin Water Connections
Infrastructure➜ Structural resilience for multi-basin supply systems
Regions: AndalusiaWater Storage & Aquifer Recharge Systems
Environment & Nature➜ Stores surplus precipitation for dry-season use
Regions: OBZ, SicilyRestoration of Natural Infiltration Areas
Environment & Nature➜ Increases groundwater recharge; reduces long-term aquifer stress
Regions: AndalusiaCanopies & Shade Structures in Public Spaces
Environment & Nature➜ Reduces evaporation loss from soil; lowers urban heat stress during droughts
Regions: SicilyDrought-Tolerant Landscaping
Environment & Nature➜ Reduces irrigation demand by up to 20%
Regions: OBZDrought Protocol Updated with Climate Projections
Governance & Planning➜ Aligns emergency response thresholds to future SPI-12 baselines
Regions: AndalusiaMonitoring: Drinking & Groundwater Quality
Governance & Planning➜ Early detection of overexploitation and contamination events
Regions: Sicily, AndalusiaAdapt Urban Planning Regulations
Governance & Planning➜ Restricts water-intensive development in water-scarce zones
Regions: Sicily, AndalusiaPublic Water-Saving Campaigns
Society & Education➜ Reduces per-capita consumption; builds social adaptive capacity
Regions: Sicily, AndalusiaClimate-Resilient Crop Varieties & Scheduling
Society & Education➜ Reduces crop water demand; shifts irrigation to lower-stress periods
Regions: OBZHow measures reduce risk
Each measure targets one or more risk components. Governance and planning measures typically reduce Exposure (E) by keeping assets out of hazard zones. Nature-based and infrastructure measures primarily reduce Vulnerability (V). Early warning and awareness measures improve adaptive capacity — the fastest path to a lower risk score.