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climempower.eu / results / risk-maps
β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…β˜…   Horizon Europe Β· Grant No. 101112728 Β· climempower.eu

ClimEmpower:
Risk Map
Methodology

Navigating Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability for Localized Resilience.

Nine targeted risk maps with full formulas and adaptation strategies.

🌾 Drought 🌑 Heatwave πŸ”₯ Wildfire πŸ’§ Floods
Risk Map Grid Framework ↓
IPCC AR6 CORE EQUATION
HHazard
Γ—
EExposure
Γ—
VVulnerability
=
RRisk 1–1000
Risk maps
9 targeted hazard Γ— sector combinations
Hazards
Drought Β· Wildfire Β· Heatwave Β· Floods
Sectors
Agriculture Β· Population Β· Infrastructure Β· Biodiversity Β· Tourism
Resolution
100 m GeoTIFF Β· EPSG:4087
Risk scale
1–1,000 continuous Β· 5 classes
Weighting
Equal weights within H / E / V components
Demo region
Andalusia (Spain) + EU-wide baseline
MODULE 02 // THE CORE EQUATION

Deconstructing Climate Risk

Risk is not just weather. It is the geographic intersection of a climatic threat, the presence of societal assets, and their inherent fragility. If exposure is zero, risk is zero.

Risk is not just weather.

It is the geographic intersection of a climatic threat, the presence of societal assets, and their inherent fragility.

If exposure is zero, risk is zero.
H Hazard
E Exposure
V Vulnerability
R Risk 1–1000

Hazard

The environmental trigger: severity, intensity and probability.

Exposure

The physical presence of assets and people in the hazard zone.

Vulnerability

The inherent sensitivity and lack of coping capacity of exposed assets.

Risk Score

Normalised Risk Index from 1 to 1000.

MODULE 03 // WEIGHTING PHILOSOPHY

Standard Baseline vs. The Andalusian Model

Standard ClimEmpower Model

H
E
V
Risk = H0.3 Γ— E0.3 Γ— V0.3

Balanced scientific baseline aligned with IPCC recommendations.

The Andalusian Model

H
E
V
Risk = H0.2 Γ— E0.3 Γ— V0.5

Prioritises vulnerability because it is the component public authorities can directly influence.

Using the Andalusian methodology, vulnerability is weighted highest because it is the only factor public authorities can directly change through intervention.
MODULE 04 // TARGETED INTELLIGENCE

The Strategic Mapping Grid

Nine risk maps are produced. The grid shows the active hazard and sector combinations.

Hazard ↓ / Sector β†’
Agriculture
Population & Health
Infrastructure
Biodiversity
Tourism
Flood Damage
🌾 Drought
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🌑 Heatwave
β€”
βœ“
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πŸ”₯ Wildfire
βœ“
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πŸ’§ Floods
β€”
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🌾
CLIMATE HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT

Drought

The Slow-Motion Disaster: Mapping Water Security

Drought is a prolonged period of below-normal precipitation that leads to water scarcity across ecosystems, agriculture, and society. Unlike other natural hazards, it has no clear onset and accumulates slowly over months to years.

The ClimEmpower methodology distinguishes between meteorological drought and agricultural drought, with dedicated risk profiles for population and agriculture.

1.5Γ— Mediterranean warming rate compared with the global mean
βˆ’1.5 Extreme drought threshold used in the ClimEmpower classification
Explore full drought methodology β†’
🌑
CLIMATE HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT

Heatwave

The Urban Heat Island: Spatial Proximity & Health

A heatwave is a prolonged period of abnormally high temperatures that significantly exceeds the historical norms for a given region.

The ClimEmpower model uses Land Surface Temperature to identify spatial thermal hotspots and combines this with population and vulnerability indicators.

More than 70,000Excess deaths during the 2003 European heatwave
47.4Β°CSpain’s all-time record temperature
61,672Estimated excess heat deaths across Europe in summer 2022
Explore full heatwave methodology β†’
πŸ”₯
CLIMATE HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT

Wildfire

Asset-Dependent Threat: The WUI Intersection

A wildfire is an uncontrolled fire occurring in vegetated areas. It is driven by fire weather, fuel availability and ignition sources.

The ClimEmpower methodology combines the Fire Weather Index with burnable vegetation and separates risk by population, agriculture, infrastructure, biodiversity and tourism.

More than 785,000 hectaresBurned across the European Union in 2022
Explore full wildfire methodology β†’
πŸ’§
CLIMATE HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT

Floods

The Fiscal Threat: Translating Water Depth to Financial Loss

Flooding is the temporary inundation of land not normally covered by water. The assessment translates flood depth into financial damage through depth-damage functions.

More than €46 billionTotal losses from the July 2021 western European floods
Displacement thresholdFlood depth used in ClimEmpower as an evacuation trigger
Explore full flood methodology β†’
SYNTHESIS // THE RESILIENCE LOOP

Mathematically Inverting Risk

Because risk is an equation, increasing adaptive capacity lowers vulnerability and generates a new, lower risk score after intervention.

1Map the Threat
2Isolate Vulnerability
β™»
3Deploy Interventions
4Increase Adaptive Capacity
5Recalculate Risk
1

Variable Normalisation

All inputs are reclassified to a common 1–10 scale.

1 ≀ Variable score ≀ 10
2

Component Aggregation

Hazard, exposure and vulnerability are calculated from their constituent variables using equal weights.

C = Ξ£ Vα΅’ Γ— (1/n)
3

Final Risk Score

The three components are multiplied.

R = H Γ— E Γ— V
1–200Very LowBenchmark good practices
200–400LowMaintain adaptive capacity
400–600ModeratePrecautionary planning
600–800HighTargeted investment
800–1000Very HighImmediate action required
BIBLIOGRAPHY

References

Academic and institutional sources underlying the ClimEmpower risk map methodology, hazard science and adaptation evidence base.

  1. 1

    BΓΌgelmayer-Blaschek, M., Hochebner, A., Gazzaneo, P., et al. (2025). Measures and strategies for increased Climate Change resilience. Deliverable D2.4. ClimEmpower Horizon Europe Project, Grant No. 101112728.

  2. 2

    IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press.

  3. 3

    IPCC (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press.

  4. 4

    CarrΓ£o, H., Naumann, G., and Barbosa, P. (2016). Mapping global patterns of drought risk. Global Environmental Change, 39, 108–124.

  5. 5

    McKee, T. B., Doesken, N. J., and Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales.

  6. 6

    Vicente-Serrano, S. M., BeguerΓ­a, S., and LΓ³pez-Moreno, J. I. (2010). A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming.

  7. 7

    Robine, J. M., et al. (2008). Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003.

  8. 8

    Ballester, J., et al. (2023). Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022.

  9. 9

    Ronnkvist, S. R., et al. (2025). Metrics of Temperature Extremes in Europe NUTS Regions (1980–2024).

  10. 10

    Oke, T. R. (1982). The energetic basis of the urban heat island.

  11. 11

    Van Wagner, C. E. (1987). Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System.

  12. 12

    San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., et al. (2023). Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2022.

  13. 13

    San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Schulte, E., Schmuck, G., and Camia, A. (2013). The European Forest Fire Information System.

  14. 14

    Moreira, F., et al. (2011). Landscape-wildfire interactions in southern Europe.

  15. 15

    Huizinga, J., de Moel, H., and Szewczyk, W. (2017). Global flood depth-damage functions.

  16. 16

    Munich Re (2022). Natural disasters 2021: The year in figures.

  17. 17

    Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G. (2015). Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe.

  18. 18

    Vousdoukas, M. I., et al. (2018). Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels.

  19. 19

    Cardona, O. D., et al. (2012). Determinants of risk: exposure and vulnerability.

  20. 20

    Birkmann, J. (2006). Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards disaster resilient societies.

OPERATIONAL DATA SOURCES
JRC Global Drought ObservatorySPI-12 drought hazard maps at 200 m resolution
Copernicus Climate Data Store (C3S)Fire Weather Index and regional climate projections
USGS / RSlab M2M APILandsat 8–9 TIRS Band 10 Land Surface Temperature
Copernicus Land Monitoring ServiceCORINE Land Cover and imperviousness layers
Eurostat / GISCOPopulation Census Grid 2021 and administrative boundaries
JRC / Copernicus EMSEuropean flood hazard maps and return periods
European Environment AgencyNatura 2000 and EFFIS datasets
OpenStreetMap / GeofabrikBuildings, roads, infrastructure, green areas and tourism assets
BGR / UNESCOInternational hydrogeological map of Europe
E-PRTRIndustrial facility locations
AEMETSpanish regional meteorological observations and records
REDIAMRegional environmental data network for Andalusia
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